Thursday, April 21, 2016

Financial Considerations for Starting a Public Bank or What We Learned in Santa Fe

Introduction

There are many considerations in establishing a public bank that must be answered. This paper addresses only financial issues.

A public bank like any other bank must have a state or federal charter. A bank, unlike non-depository, financial institutions, is allowed to accept deposits. The public bank then becomes part of the nationwide banking system but has a mission to serve the public rather than private investors. 

As a member of the banking system a public bank will have an account at the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed). The Fed is a bank’s bank, and funds deposited there are called reserves. Banks also have securities accounts to hold Treasury bonds, and other government securities. Switching from reserves to securities and back occurs readily upon decisions by bank management.

Not only will a public bank return profits to the public owners, it will distinguish itself by maintaining low-risk operations. Without the need to satisfy investors with high profits, a public bank need not engage in the kind of high-risk operations and investments that can threaten private banks

Initially, A Public Bank for Santa Fe will loan to and accept deposits from its owner, the City of Santa Fe. When it becomes well established, the bank may participate with other banks and credit unions in loans to community development projects. And, it may accept deposits from other public institutions.

Owners of a public bank will be some government entity; municipality, county, state, tribe or a combination of them to amass sufficient assets and liabilities to operate profitably. To achieve its modest profit a bank must make loans, have deposits, and the owners must provide initial capital. We will briefly discuss each of these below and outline an hypothetical example. Also, we will take a closer look at “federal reserves.”

First, let’s briefly summarize what we have learned with our modeling efforts.

The Bottom Line

Our modeling suggests some minimum financial criteria for starting a public bank that can grow and thrive. Our numbers indicate that at start up the bank will need an opening loan portfolio of $40 million, $5 million in capital, and about $80 million in deposits. A community that does not have this minimum financial capacity might partner with another local public institution like a school district or a county.

Our analysis begins with considering income from loans. As interest rates change and we negotiate loan rates, we try to maintain an average “spread,” which is the difference between the rate our bank pays depositors and the rate the bank charges borrowers. If we can achieve a 3% spread, we will make $1.2 million on a $40 million loan portfolio. This is pretty close to a minimum amount for a staff of four people and a small office space. Some additional income will accrue from other investments

The $40 million loan portfolio implies minimums for capital investment and deposits. Needed capital investment should be, at least, $5 million. Federal regulations require owners to invest capital in amounts related to assets. And, deposits should be about twice the loan amount, $80 million.

These will be discussed further below. First, we will discuss the rudiments of federal reserves.

Federal Reserves

The idea of reserves is easy to understand, and paradoxically is easy to misunderstand. Simply, as stated above, reserves are a bank’s balance in its account at the Fed. Reserves can be thought of as a checking account balance. And, just as a deposit in a bank is a liability(1) of the bank and an asset of the depositor. So, federal reserve balances are liabilities of the Fed and assets of our public bank.

Reserve balances are often called more appropriately “clearing balances.” Their sole purpose is to connect all banks together so that as checks are cashed funds are transferred electronically from a sending bank to a receiving bank at the face value of the checks. When a check is written on one bank and deposited in another, the Fed decreases the reserve account at the originating bank and increases the reserve account at the receiving bank(2). The two banks then appropriately decrease and increase the accounts of their depositors. 

Central banks around the world “clear” checks in this manner. The U.S. system processes trillions of dollars every day.

To be complete, reserves are the balance in a bank’s reserve account plus actual vault cash on hand. The balance of my bank account is my bank’s promise that when I write a check the bank will make reserves available so that the Fed can electronically credit them to the check recipient’s bank. When I receive a check, the reverse happens.

When a bank needs reserves it can borrow them from another bank or the Fed will create reserves on demand. As people write and receive checks to buy goods and services, reserves circulate around the banking system.

Only a few operations can change the total balance of reserves in the banking system. As discussed later, bank lending increases reserves, because it increases bank deposits. Likewise, repayment of loans decreases reserves, because it decreases bank deposits.

Also, other government monetary and fiscal operations beyond the scope of the present discussion change the quantity of reserves in the banking system.

Profit

No business, not even a public bank can endure without making a profit. Of course, income must cover salary, benefits, office space, and equipment for personnel. But, there is more.

Income must also pay for interest earned on deposits and loan losses. The latter occur when loans fail to provide the income originally anticipated. Although a loan to government is considered low-risk, it will underperform upon refinancing or early payoff. Loan loss provisions are both prudent and required by federal regulations. 

We must not forget taxes on bank profits, unless the bank would qualify as a not-for-profit business. We expect that the public bank will be set up as the City of Santa Fe doing business as the public bank. That would be a tax-free arrangement.

In the course of doing business it may be necessary for the bank to take out loans which will add to operating costs. Debt service(3) on such loans is another addition to expenses.

Loans

The main money-making engine of a bank is its loan portfolio. A public bank has an advantage over other banks, because it doesn’t have to market itself to make loans. The government entity that founds the public bank refinances its debt through the bank. It might seem easy to just assume enough of the government’s loans to guarantee a good profit. But, we must consider other realities.

First, municipal or state bonds and some loans can be refinanced without penalty only on specific “call dates” that are written into the loan agreement. Generally, bonds cost more to issue than loans. So, it is often prudent to finance spending through loans. 

Second, as discussed below, federal regulations use the bank’s capital(4) to limit the amount of loans a bank can issue. This differs from the view commonly held that regulatory loan limits are based on deposits. 

Double entry bookkeeping requires four bookkeeping entries for a loan. For the bank, a loan deposit is a liability and the borrower’s promissory note(5) is an asset. For the borrower, the promissory note is a liability, and the new loan deposit is an asset.

Deposits

Deposits received by a bank are liabilities. Also, a deposit resulting from a bank loan is a liability. The distinction between them is that deposits received bring with them reserves as assets transferred by the Fed from the originating bank. When the bank lends, it does not automatically create reserves. But, when a borrower withdraws loan deposits by writing checks on the account, the bank must find and deposit reserves so the Fed can credit them to the receiving bank. These reserves must come from either the bank’s existing assets or borrowing.

Banks need deposits, because they are the most inexpensive way to acquire reserves. Other ways to acquire reserves are borrowing from money markets at less than 1% or from the Fed Discount Window(6) at 1% to 1.5%. Profits improve when a bank has abundant deposits. The more deposits we have the longer we can delay borrowing. 

Strictly speaking, the Fed cannot loan its liabilities (reserves) any more than a bank can lend its liabilities (deposits). Instead, the operation is accomplished through Repurchase Agreements (repos) where the “borrower” (public bank) sells a government bond to the “lender” (another financial institution or the Fed). And, the borrower promises to repurchase the bond at the same price plus interest the next day or a few days hence. 

Public banks have an advantage in acquiring deposits, because the existing government deposits from taxes and fees are immediately available. Again, the public bank does not have to incur the costs of marketing itself (give away toasters) to acquire deposits.

Capital

Core capital is what owners of a bank invest in the bank. Stockholders’ equity is the difference between assets and liabilities. Bank management invests financial assets in securities such as government bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage backed securities, and the unmentionable, derivatives. Core capital can grow by retaining some part of earnings.

Governments always have tight budgets. To find the millions of dollars to capitalize a bank will seem like a tall order. Even when the funds are found, it may be a tough sell to the taxpayers. However, the major selling point is this; banks make profits, and in a public bank profits go back to the people.

A bank leverages its equity to make loans and grow. For that reason, we consider core capital to be essentially an endowment that will grow and provide benefits far into the future.

As equity grows, the loan portfolio can grow, and the bank could offer lower rates. However, lower rates mean lower profits. As the loan portfolio grows, a given spread in interest rates will yield more income. Then management can consider lower rates. The choice depends on whether bank management gets more kudos for low rates or larger year-end returns. 

Generally, federal regulations use Capital Adequacy Ratios to limit the amount of lending a bank can do. One such ratio is total capital to risk-weighted financial assets. The denominator of the ratio is the sum of assets, each asset is given a risk-weight multiplier of 0 to greater than 1. For examples, a government bond would have zero weight and would add nothing to the sum. A municipal bond might have a weight of 0.5, and a home mortgage a weight of 1. So, a bank with a lot of government securities would have a smaller denominator, hence a higher ratio. Higher is better. 

According to present rules, the above ratio must be greater than 10% for a well-capitalized bank(7). 

Another important ratio is  (Tier-1 capital) to total assets ratio, called Leverage(8), which must be greater than 5%.

Tier-1 capital includes retained earnings in addition to core capital. Tier-2 capital includes long-term debt, and loan-loss reserves. In addition to limiting the amount of lending, capital is important, because it absorbs any bank losses. 

The detailed Basel III rules and penalties for failing to follow those rules are complicated and beyond our present scope(9).

Day-to-Day Operations 

During any business day multiple deposits to and withdrawals from the bank occur. At the end of the day a bank will have net deposits or net withdrawals. The latter means that reserves will be credited to the accounts of other banks by the Fed. During the day the Fed will allow overdrafts of a bank’s account. But, at the end of the day those reserves must be there or else!

If the adequate reserves are not on deposit at the end of the day, the Fed will supply them and charge a hefty penalty rate of interest. 

To avoid overdrafts and penalties a bank must obtain reserves. Standard practice is for a bank needing reserves to borrow them on the overnight Federal Funds Market at the going Federal Funds Rate without collateral. Other sources of reserves are US government agencies, savings and loan associations or any financial institution having an account at the Fed. 

When banks have excess reserves they may attempt to loan them in the overnight market. Currently, there are excess reserves in the banking system. This should make reserves easy to borrow but hard to lend, which might cause bank management to retain more reserves than needed or wanted.

Management of day-to-day operations involve how much to hold in reserves, what mix of securities in kind and in maturity to have, whether and how much to borrow and from whom. These decisions have an impact on profitability and require expert attention.

An Hypothetical Example

Let us look at a bank with $5 million in capital and $80 million in deposits of which $10 million. The capital should allow $40 million in loans. For simplicity, we will assume a single $40 million loan for 8 years at 4.2% interest with semiannual payments. With only $10 million in demand deposits, no reserves are required, but we put $1 million in as a place holder. The bank will have an initial balance sheet as shown in Table I.

Also, we used $200,000 of assets for computer and office equipment to get started.

Table II shows the situation immediately after the loan is made and deposited in the bank. Both assets and liabilities are increased by the amount of the loan. This is the operation whereby banks “create” money. Banks create most of the money in our economy by this simple operation. 

Currently, the reserve balance required by the Fed is 3% of demand deposits in excess of $15.2 million(10). We regard the new loan deposit as a demand deposit. So, to comply with regulations some securities ($44,000) were converted to reserves. Table II shows shows this increase in reserves.

The next operation assumes that our borrower withdraws the whole $40 million loan deposit to build something wonderful for public benefit. When the $40 million in checks are deposited in other banks the Fed will decrease our Fed account by $40 million. We immediately convert $40 million from securities to reserves so that our Fed account is not overdrawn. In Table IV we show that the loan deposit has been withdrawn.

During the following year principal and interest are paid on the loan. Principal paid reduces the remaining loan balance, and interest both reduces outstanding interest due and flows to income. In addition we have income from investments in securities, 0.5% on reserves and about 1.5% on a mix of 2- and 5-year treasuries.

In Table III we tabulate our income, expenses, and net profit. These data are integrated into Table IV which shows our balance sheet after one year. We have assumed that when our borrower’s assets were drawn down to make loan payments additional deposits were made to maintain $80 million in deposits. Also, we show the $700,000 that the customer earned in interest.

The retained earnings are available as a dividend to the owners, as an increase to Tier-1 capital, or a combination of both options.

Finally, let us note from the balance statement in Table IV that we have about $50 million in assets against some $80 million in deposits. Whether or not that is adequate depends on the magnitude of withdrawals the depositor may take in the future. In the unlikely event, that the depositor would withdraw all funds on deposit, we would be short $30 million. 

To decrease the margin between assets and deposits bank management might decide to shop for a long-term loan, which is a more expensive liability than a deposit. But, we expect additional reserves will be available in the overnight funds market.

Conclusion

It appears that public banks can find a niche in the national banking system by returning profits to the public rather than to private investors. Because they need not cater to private investors’ desires for profit, public banks can be very conservative in their investments. They promise to reduce borrowing costs for local public projects and provide funding at the time it is needed. Public banks will provide transparency and accountability to the public for bank decisions.

Footnotes

1) Liability is not a pejorative term, it just means that liabilities are a promise of something owed to the depositor. 
3) Principal and Interest borrower pays to lender.
4) Stockholders' equity.
5) Agreement to repay the loan.
7) We have chosen a more conservative 12.5%.
8) Leverage may be the most limiting ratio.

Tables

Table I  Initial Balance Sheet
Assets
Liabilities and Equity
Cash reserves at Fed
$1,000,000
Demand deposits
$10,000,000
Securities
$83,800,000
Time deposits
$70,000,000
Loans



Loan loss allowance



Net loans



Bank premises and equipment
$200,000
Equity
$5,000,000




Total
$85,000,000

$85,000,000

Table II Balance Sheet After Loan Deposited
Assets
Liabilities and Equity
Cash reserves at Fed
$1,044,000
Demand deposits
$10,000,000
Securities
$83,756,000
Time deposits
$70,000,000
Loans
$40,000,000
Loan deposit
$40,000,000
Loan loss allowance



Net loans



Bank premises and equipment
$200,000
Equity
$5,000,000




Total
$125,000,000

$125,000,000

Table III Income & Expense Statement
Interest Income
$2,165,883
Operating Expenses
Salaries & Benefits
$500,000
IT Support
$30,000
Rent
$500,000
Interest on Deposits
$700,000
Loan Loss Expense
$75,000
Debt service

Total operating expense
$1,805,000
Profit
$360,883
Taxes @ 15%
$54,132
Net Profit
$306,751

Table IV Year After Loan Withdrawn
Assets
Liabilities and Equity
Cash reserves in Fed
$1,000,000
Demand deposits
$10,000,000
Securities
$49,185,254
Time deposits
$70,700,000
Loans
$35,696,497
Loan deposit Withdrawn
Loan loss allowance
($75,000)


Net loans
$35,621,497


Bank premises and equipment
$200,000
Equity
$5,000,000


Retained earnings
$306,751
Total
$86,006,751

$86,006,751




Bank References

Although not referenced in the text, the following references informed the above discussion.

McLeay, Michael, et. al., Money creation in the modern economy, Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1: 

Coppola, Frances, Banks Don’t Lend Out Reserves, Forbes/Investing. January 21, 2014

Werner Richard A., How do banks create money, and why can other firms not do the same? An explanation for the coexistence of lending and deposit taking, International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol 36, December 2014, pp. 71-77

Bell, Stephanie, Can Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?, Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 244, July 1998

Wray, L. Randall, Endogenous Money: Structuralist and Horizontalist, Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 512, September 2007

Fullwiler, Scott T, An Endogenous Money Perspective on the Post-Crisis Monetary Policy Debate, Review of Keynesian Economics, Vol. 1 No 2, Summer 2013, pp. 171-194

Fullwiler, Scott T, Modern Central Bank Operations - The General Principles, Warburg College: Bard College - Levy Economics Institute, June 2008

Wray, L. Randall, Modern Money Theory, Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, Chapter 3

A Nascent Text on Money & Banking, Eric Tymoigne, Associate Professor of Economics, Lewis and Clark College, Portland, Oregon










Mosler, Warren, Soft Currency Economics II, Valence Co. 1996

Many thanks for helpful suggestions and comments to Nichoe Lichen and Elizabeth Dwyer of the Brass Tacks Team for Banking on New Mexico. bankingonnewmexico.org

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

A Public Bank for Santa Fe

The following has been submitted to the Santa Fe New Mexican as an OpEd. They should publish it - we'll see. Over two weeks they said it would be published "in a few days." I give up will have another go at it. And, then they published it on April 24, with the title "Santa Fe could use a public bank."
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A study funded by the City was released in mid-January. It both supported the feasibility of a public bank in Santa Fe and increased public interest in the idea. 

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 followed unscrupulous behavior of Wall Street banks. Then Main Street was hung out to dry while the Federal Reserve Bank bailed out Wall Street. So, we might look askance at banks in general. 

Most of us have checking accounts at a bank, and our banks have checking accounts at the Fed. Let’s face it, we are stuck with banking. Bank loans account for most of the money in our economy. But, public banks offer a way for banks to serve the people instead of people serving banks.  

Public banks are not new. The Bank of North Dakota (BND) is a century-old, public bank that is an essential element of that state’s economy. In Germany public banks garner 40% of all bank assets. In other parts of the world public banks are common. 

My own skepticism toward a public bank turned to enthusiasm upon working with the Brass Tacks Team of Banking on New Mexico. We modeled the first five years of a hypothetical public bank. Also, we calculated the savings to the city of refinancing existing bonds and loans through our public bank. Independent of the City’s study, we showed that a public bank can reduce City borrowing costs significantly.

Generally, this is how our public bank could work. Our public bank would be the City’s bank chartered by the State. The City would own the bank as it would provide the capital to be leveraged for loans. The City would deposit its income in the bank and pay its bills from the deposits. We assumed $100 million in city deposits, $10 million in capital, and a $50 million loan portfolio. These amounts are consistent with City assets and liabilities reported for FY 2014.

Over the five years our model yielded $10.5 million in profits and reduced City debt by $4.85 million.

A public bank would operate like any other bank except that profits would go back to the people.


The bank would minimize its own expenses. It would not handle individual citizen deposits. And, it would use neither tellers nor ATMs. The bank staff would be few and other overhead would be austere. Employees would be hired and paid by the bank not by the City.

Bill Black’s book, The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One, along with prevailing public sentiment tell us that the City will not manage the bank. The City Council’s role is to approve City borrowing. Banking professionals would operate the bank day to day with an appropriate oversight board.

A bank depositor is an unsecured creditor of a bank. To be a safe haven for City deposits the bank must make conservative investments of its assets. Not founded to satisfy private investors, our bank need not take risks to chase high profits. 

Our bank would offer the City an alternative to expensive, omnibus bonds and provide transparency to funding. Instead of large bonds, the city could take out loans for individual projects as needed.

When the local lending environment improves, the bank could cooperate with community banks and other lenders for local development efforts.

Our bank would return to the City interest on loans that would otherwise go to private investors and Wall Street. It would provide a safe haven for City funds against the turbulent environment of private banking. And, it would provide better transparency of City spending. 

Like BND a Public Bank for Santa Fe would aspire to make a significant impact on the prosperity of the local economy.

Thanks to other team members, Nichoe Lichen, Elizabeth Dwyer for comments on this article.

BankingonNewMexico.org provides more information.

Public Banking

It troubles me that I have not posted since September 2015, which seems a long time ago. Because of my interest in macroeconomics, I've studied a bit about banks. Then I heard about Public Banking and read Ellen Brown's book, "The Public Bank Solution: From Austerity to Prosperity." At the same time I learned of growing interest in Santa Fe about a public bank here. That seemed to me to be a hell-of-a-good idea.

So, I volunteered to work for this organization not knowing what I was getting in to. I've learned a lot, contributed a fair amount and have been keeping busy. They gave me this calling card. It seems there will be some calling to do especially with some city councilors.



A new career for an old man??



Tuesday, September 1, 2015

The Journal gets it wrong

Today, I submitted this to the Albuquerque Journal. My wife says they will cancel our subscription. I can only hope...
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At the top of your Op-Ed page on August 28, you had a Ramirez cartoon that was so wrong it needs to be called out. The cartoon depicted poor old Uncle Sam supporting a huge burden of national debt on his back while disparaging the irresponsible debtor countries Greece and Puerto Rico. The cartoon implied that our national debt is a burden and that it is similar to and just as irresponsible as the debts of those two unfortunate countries. It just ain’t so! The implications are wrong and misleading.

This neoliberal cartoon appeared atop the Albuquerque Journal Op-Ed page.


First, our national debt is nothing like the debts of Greece and Puerto Rico. Neither country controls the currency in which its debt is denominated. The only way Greece can obtain euros and Puerto Rico dollars to pay their debts is to export more than they import. Failing that, as they do, the governments must tax their private sectors more than they spend into them. Over time, as we have seen, the private sector becomes impoverished. 

A country, like ours, that issues its own currency can always service its debt, because it issues its own currency. If needed, we can devalue our currency, but that is not an option for currency users like Greece or Puerto Rico and, we might add, our own states and households.

Second, when loans go bad both creditors and debtors share the blame. It takes two to tango. Debtors can overestimate their ability to pay, and creditors can underestimate the risks. Always, it seems, the creditors gain the advantage over the debtors. We have seen it play out in old-time melodramas where the despicable landlord threatens to have his way with the poor and lovely damsel. Then the villain retreats under a chorus of boos and a hail peanuts. The Greeks and Puerto Ricans are not so easily saved.

In the eurozone we have seen the plot again as the rich creditors drain the Greek economy, impoverish its people, demand sale of state real assets at fire-sale prices, and nullify democratically passed legislation. 

Puerto Rico is a colony of the US. In previous decades it was normal to exploit colonies for wealth extraction. Now, in this supposedly civilized global economy Puerto Rican citizens are left with reduced Medicare, poor bankruptcy protections, and adverse action taken by our Congress. Instead of protecting our colony in troubled times, we have made it vulnerable to predatory Wall Street vultures.

Finally, you still don’t understand the national debt and the deficits that contribute to it. Yet, it is very simple. When the government spends a dollar to buy something from the private sector, someone gets that dollar. Economists will verify there are only three things that one can do with the dollar: 1) Spend it, 2) Pay taxes, or 3) Save it. If spent, someone else gets the dollar and has the same three choices and so on. Ultimately, the dollar goes to pay taxes or is saved.

If the dollar pays taxes, it balances the budget. If the dollar is saved, it is a government deficit. Government deficits are private savings. We don’t pay off government debts; that would take away private savings. Government debt, unlike household debt, is not a burden but a boon. 


Get with it, or you will continue to bolster the neoliberal paradigm that is favored by despicable landlords and undermines our economy.