Wednesday, April 27, 2011
There is a persistent misperception that the US must borrow to fund its deficit. In a previous post, Gold is Gone, we pointed out that economic rules have changed since we went off the gold standard in 1971.
The US now has a sovereign, floating exchange rate, fiat currency that is actually created out of thin air by government spending to acquire goods and services from the private sector (firms and households). Taxation takes money from the private sector and destroys it. If taxation does not equal what was spent, we buy or sell bonds according to whether we are in surplus or deficit, respectively. Accordingly, that leaves the private sector with less or more wealth in savings. This might leave the impression that taxes and borrowing enable spending. Let’s look more closely.
Government spending is accomplished by depositing money in a recipients bank account. This deposit causes an increase in the bank’s reserve requirement.
Every bank has a reserve account at the Fed, which requires them to keep some fraction of their deposits in these accounts. For big banks this minimum is 10%. Also, the banks must keep enough in their reserve accounts to clear the checks presented for payment on any day. Banks earn only about 0.25% interest on these accounts; before 2008 it was zip.
As a instrument of policy, the Fed tries to control demand for loans in the private sector by controlling the overnight Fed funds interest rate. This is the rate at which banks can borrow money to cover loans made at profitable rates.
Because they make little profit on excess reserves, banks try to keep them at the required minimum. A day's activity at any one bank can leave it with an excess or a shortage. Overnight the banks have a scramble to acquire needed reserves or dump excesses, which they do by loaning funds to one another in the money market.
If the government is running a deficit, there will usually be excess reserves in the system, because deficit spending puts assets into the private sector. There is no way that the banking system can, by itself, get rid of excess reserves, so the forces of supply and demand will drive the interest rate on reserves to the minimum rate. To keep the overnight rate up, the Fed drains excess reserves by selling bonds at somewhere near its target rate. Buyers will be eager to buy bonds having yields better than the minimum rates, so bond sales never fail.
We do not borrow to fund the deficit; we sell bonds to maintain the Fed funds rate. That is a big difference between our floating rate currency and that of fixed rate currencies like those of Greece and Ireland. Such countries are vulnerable to default on their securities and face high interest rates in the global market. We are not vulnerable to default, because we can always meet commitments made in our currency. That is, unless we do something politically stupid like not raising the debt ceiling, an archaic rule left over from the gold-standard days.
The above is for normal times. Currently, banks are reluctant to lend and the private sector would rather save than borrow. Consequently, the Fed funds rate sits at the minimum. The Fed can’t control something that isn’t happening.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
It's time to be really frightened. At last, we see the true stripes of the modern Republican Party. After, giving tax breaks to the rich, busting the unions, and giving tax advantages to big business; they will attack the deficit by reducing benefits for the elderly, the sick, and the poor. Privatizing Social Security and vouchering Medicare will be good for Wall Street and the insurance companies but not for the would-be beneficiaries.
Rep Paul Ryan states that his "Plan for Prosperity" will pay off the debt. That may sound good to some, but we know that it doesn't stand up to simple accounting. As long as the we run a foreign trade deficit, dollars will be going out of the country. Those dollars will come from either the government sector or the private sector. If the government does not run a deficit those dollars shipped abroad will come from the private sector. That is, wealth will be drained from the private sector excluding, of course, Wall Street and the insurance industry. Is that what we mean by "prosperity?"
The Ryan budget is both inhumane and stupid. It further enriches the rich at the expense of the disenfranchised and doesn't pass the simple test of basic accounting.